India’s retail sector: Market to hit $1 trillion by 2030; digital and D2C formats set to reshape traditional shopping
A new report by venture capital firm Fireside Ventures says this surge will be fuelled by rising disposable incomes, faster digital adoption and the growth of a large aspirational consumer class.Fireside argues that the change is not just in size but in the very structure of how Indians shop.
The firm notes that retail channels are seeing their “most dramatic reconfiguration yet.” According to the report, general trade—which made up over 90 per cent of retail in 2014—is projected to drop to around 70 per cent by 2030, reported news agency ANI.
At the same time, modern trade, e-commerce, quick commerce and direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands are expected to accelerate sharply.
D2C and quick commerce alone may account for up to 5 per cent of the total market within the decade.With shoppers increasingly embracing digital-first formats, branded retail is forecast to double and reach nearly $730 billion, which would represent almost half of all retail spending.
Fireside highlights that new-age, digital-native brands are currently scaling two to three times faster than conventional companies, helped by agile distribution, data-driven product development and more personalised customer engagement.The analysis outlines several emerging consumer segments.
The firm notes, “Map your audiences, and you’ll see the opportunity take the shape of many substantial markets, whether India I, the 15 per cent population driving 35 per cent of retail and 60 per cent of branded buys; or Bharat, the larger, fast-digitising 85 per cent, hungry for new brands and experiences,” as per ANI.By 2030, India is expected to have 1.1 billion internet users and over 400 million online shoppers.
Fireside describes this as the “flattest consumption opportunity” India has ever witnessed.The firm concludes that India’s next hundred iconic consumer brands will be built by founders who blend cultural insight with digital fluency—creating niche, rooted and experimental labels that resonate with a confident, modern and increasingly regional Indian shopper.
