Gold-silver prices outlook: Bullion set to stay firm as Fed minutes awaited; pace of gains may cool after 2025 surge
According to PTI, market participants will track the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, due on Tuesday, along with a few US economic indicators such as pending home sales, to assess the direction of interest rates and their impact on bullion prices.Analysts said gold and silver are likely to retain underlying strength into 2026, supported by expectations of global rate cuts, safe-haven demand and firm industrial consumption.
However, they cautioned that the pace of gains may moderate after an exceptional rally in 2025.On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures rose Rs 5,677, or 4.23 per cent, during the week to touch a lifetime high of Rs 1,40,465 per 10 grams on Friday.“After a staggering rally in 2025, we do not expect similar returns in 2026.
But the current momentum may push prices towards $5,000–5,200 globally and Rs 1,50,000–1,55,000 on the MCX in 2026,” said Pranav Mer, vice-president, EBG, Commodity and Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, PTI quoted.Mer said key drivers such as monetary policy easing, de-dollarisation trends and global trade tensions are likely to remain in focus next year.
He added that developments such as Bank of Japan rate hikes, escalation in global trade restrictions and economic activity in the US and China will be closely monitored.In international markets, gold prices climbed $165.4, or 3.77 per cent, over the past week and touched a lifetime high of $4,584 per ounce on the Comex, ending the holiday-shortened week on a strong note.Mer noted that while central bank gold buys have slowed compared to the previous three years, buying remains steady due to portfolio diversification needs and currency-related concerns amid expectations of further rate cuts.Prathamesh Mallya, DVP–Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said easing interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and expectations of further cuts have made gold and silver attractive in 2025.“These assets have also benefited from safe-haven flows amid uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war,” Mallya said, adding that gold prices could move towards Rs 1,60,000 per 10 grams on domestic exchanges in the first half of 2026.Silver futures also saw a sharp rally during the week, reflecting strong industrial as well as investment demand.
On the MCX, silver surged Rs 31,348, or 15.04 per cent, during the holiday-shortened week and touched a record Rs 2,42,000 per kg on Friday.On the Comex, silver prices gained $9.71, or 14.4 per cent, over the week, hitting a lifetime high of $79.70 per ounce.“Silver is supported by strong industrial demand from new-age sectors, relatively cheaper pricing compared to gold, and a sharp rally in industrial metals following tariff announcements earlier this year,” Mer said.Analysts said silver prices could move towards Rs 2,75,000 per kg on the MCX and $80–85 per ounce globally, driven by supply constraints and sustained demand.China, the world’s largest consumer of silver and a major producer of solar panels, electronics and electric vehicles, has announced export restrictions from January 1, 2026, requiring licences for shipments.
Analysts said the move, expected to remain in place through 2027, could disrupt global supply chains and support prices.Overall, analysts said precious metals are likely to remain firm in 2026, with interest-rate expectations, trade tensions and industrial demand keeping gold and silver in focus.
