IMF world economic outlook report: Global growth resilient despite trade and geopolitical risks; top points to know
Global growth is projected to stay resilient at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, broadly matching the estimated 3.3% outturn in 2025, according to the latest World Economic Outlook Update released by International Monetary Fund. The forecast noted a slight upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with October 2025 projections.Beneath the steady headline numbers, however, momentum remains uneven across regions and sectors.
Headwinds from shifting trade policies, elevated policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks are being counterbalanced by strong technology-led investment—especially linked to artificial intelligence—supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and the adaptability of the private sector.
Global inflation is expected to ease gradually, though risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.Top points to know
Steady global growth path
World output is projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, a marginal slowdown from 2025 but stronger than earlier expectations for next year.
AI investment is the key tailwind
Surging technology and AI-related investment—most visible in North America and parts of Asia—is offsetting trade frictions and slowing demand in other sectors.
Inflation continues to cool
Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, broadly unchanged from earlier forecasts.
US inflation normalisation slower
Inflation is projected to return to target more gradually in the United States than in other major economies, partly due to tariff pass-through and elevated cost pressures.
Trade tensions have eased, but risks persist
Recent truces—such as the US–China pause on tariffs and export controls until November 2026—have reduced near-term stress, but uncertainty remains well above early-2025 levels.
Technology stocks diverge sharply
Equity markets show a widening gap between major technology firms and the rest of the market, highlighting concentration risks if AI-related expectations are reassessed.
Uneven regional momentum
The US saw strong growth driven by tech investment, while parts of Europe faced export and manufacturing weakness; China’s growth moderated amid weak domestic demand but resilient exports.
Global trade still holding up
Technology-related exports—such as semiconductors and equipment—continue to expand briskly, offsetting slower growth in other product categories.
Fiscal policy turning supportive in key economies
Fiscal stances in major advanced economies, including the US, Germany and Japan, are expected to be stimulative in the near term, helping cushion growth.
Downside risks dominate the outlook
A sharp reassessment of AI-driven productivity gains could trigger market corrections, while renewed trade flare-ups, geopolitical shocks, high public debt and rising long-term interest rates could weigh on activity.
Bottom line:
The global economy is proving resilient on the surface, supported by AI-driven investment and policy support.
But the balance is fragile.
Sustaining growth over the medium term will require restoring fiscal buffers, preserving price and financial stability, reducing policy uncertainty and pushing ahead with long-delayed structural reforms.
