Stocks to buy: What’s the outlook for Nifty for February 16-20 week? Check list of top stock recommendations
Stock market recommendations: Arvind, and Bajaj Finance are the top stock picks by Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives, SBI Securities for the week starting February 16, 2026.
He also shares his views and outlook on Nifty, Bank Nifty:Index View: NiftyLast week, the Nifty once again struggled to hold above the psychologically important 26000 mark, triggering a fresh wave of profit booking.
After briefly touching 26009, the index slipped nearly 550 points in the final two sessions alone—a swift reversal that clearly reflects supply pressure at higher levels. While the headline decline may appear routine, the forces driving this correction point to deeper shifts beneath the surface.A major drag came from the Nifty IT index, which suffered a steep 8% weekly fall and is now down more than 14% month-to-date, making it one of the sharpest sectoral losers in recent months.
The sell-off has been aggravated by growing concerns over the rapid rise of AIled start-ups, which investors increasingly view as structurally disruptive to traditional IT services.
The speed and extent of the decline suggest this may not just be a short-lived pullback, raising the critical question of whether the sector has fully priced in the evolving risks.Technically, the IT space continues to flash strong warning signals.
Every key constituent of the Nifty IT index is now trading below its major moving averages, all of which are trending firmly downward.
Momentum indicators remain deeply bearish, with no signs of stabilization or reversal.
In this environment, bottomfishing attempts could prove premature unless charts begin to show a meaningful shift.Turning back to the broader Nifty, the index has slipped below its 20day, 50day, and 100day EMAs, reflecting clear deterioration in both short and medium term trend strength.
Notably, the 20day and 50day EMAs have also begun to slope downward—an early yet powerful indication of weakening momentum.
The daily RSI’s failure to reclaim the 60 level during the recent pullback, followed by a dip below its 9day average, suggests that upside potential may remain restricted for now.Looking ahead, the 25350–25300 zone is expected to act as immediate support.
A decisive break below 25300 could pave the way for a deeper slide toward 25100, and subsequently the key 24900 level.
On the upside, the 50day EMA zone at 25650–25700 now stands as a stiff barrier and will need to be cleared for the index to regain any meaningful momentum.Bank Nifty ViewThe Bank Nifty outperformed the frontline indices last week, ending the week on a flat note despite heightened volatility in the broader market.
For most of the week, the index remained stuck in a narrow 431point range, signalling a clear phase of consolidation.
This stability, however, broke on Friday as the index slipped into a range breakdown, indicating the first signs of weakness after several sessions of subdued price action.Despite Friday’s dip, Bank Nifty continues to hold above all its major moving averages, which remain in an upward trajectory—underscoring that the broader trend structure is still intact.
However, momentum indicators and oscillators are pointing towards a sideways-to-neutral bias, suggesting that the index may continue to consolidate before any meaningful directional move emerges.In the days ahead, the 20day EMA zone of 60000–59900 will act as immediate support.
A sustained breakdown below 59900 could open the gates for further decline towards the 50day EMA, currently placed near 59467.
On the upside, the 60600–60700 zone remains a critical resistance area, and only a decisive close above this band may set the stage for a fresh upward move.
Stock recommendations:
ArvindArvind has delivered a downward sloping trendline breakout on the weekly chart, backed by strong follow-through price action and rising volumes, which adds credibility to the move.
Weekly RSI has jumped from 43 to 65, signalling a sharp improvement in bullish momentum and a shift toward strength territory.
ADX is rising steadily, indicating that trend strength is expanding on the upside.
Rising MACD histogram bars further show increasing positive momentum and growing bullish control.
Overall, the price structure and indicator alignment suggest the stock is well positioned to extend its up move in the coming sessions.
Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 386-383 with a stoploss of 370.
On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 420 in the short term.
Bajaj FinanceBajaj Finance has broken out above a downward sloping trendline on the daily chart, pointing to a potential shift from correction to fresh uptrend.
On the weekly chart, a three outside up candle pattern is visible, where a strong bullish candle fully engulfs the prior bearish candle and is followed by further upside, a classic bullish reversal structure.
RSI has surged from 39 to 56 in three sessions, reflecting sharp momentum recovery. In ADX, DI+ crossing above DI− shows bullish directional strength is building.
Meanwhile, shrinking red MACD histogram bars indicate that downside momentum is fading and buyers are gradually taking control.
Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 1025-1035 with a stoploss of 1000.
On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 1100 in the short term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own.
These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
