Trump tariff shock eases? India’s exports to US rise after 4 months of slide; reach $6.3 billion in October

“Although October 2025 exports of $6.3 billion are 8.6% lower than the $6.9 billion recorded in October 2024, the month-on-month rise from September is a welcome improvement,” says GTRI.“Product-wise data for the USA for October are not yet available, but tariff-exempt sectors such as smartphones and pharmaceuticals may have performed better—though this remains only a tentative assumption.

Despite the October rebound, India’s shipments to the US have dropped nearly 28.4% between May and October, erasing more than $2.5 billion in monthly export value,” GTRI adds.

Source: GTRI

India’s trade data: Top Highlights

India’s aggregate exports declined 11.8% year-on-year in October, indicating widespread global demand softness.Among India’s top 20 markets, only 5 showed growth in October, with Spain (+43.4%) and China (+42.3%) showing highest increases.

Spain led primarily due to enhanced petroleum product exports, whilst China.

Hong Kong (+6.00%), Brazil (+3.54%), and Belgium (+2.22%) showed modest improvements.The remaining fifteen destinations saw drops, indicating widespread external challenges.

The United States (-8.58%) and UAE (-10.17%) showed moderate declines.

Substantial reductions occurred in Singapore (-54.85%), Australia (-52.42%), Italy (-27.66%), UK (-27.16%), and the Netherlands (-22.75%).

Additional declines were noted in Malaysia (-22.68%), Korea (-16.43%), Germany (-15.14%), France (-14.28%), Bangladesh (-14.10%), Nepal (-12.64%), South Africa (-7.54%), and Saudi Arabia (-1.12%).Imports of gold rose by 188.2% whilst silver increased by 528.7%, pushing total imports to $73.2 billion, despite gems and jewellery exports declining by 29.5%.Following May 2025’s growth of 4.8% to $8.8 billion, exports declined consistently: June showed -5.7% to $8.3 billion, July registered -3.6% to $8.0 billion, August saw -13.8% to $6.9 billion, and September experienced -20.3%, before showing signs of improvement in October.India recorded a significant increase in its merchandise imports, which reached $73.2 billion in October 2025, showing a 16.5% growth.

The rise was primarily attributed to substantial increases in precious metals buys.The country’s gold imports witnessed a remarkable increase of 188.2%, totalling $14.7 billion.

Similarly, silver imports demonstrated an exceptional growth of 528.7%, amounting to $2.7 billion compared to the previous year’s figuresThis substantial increase in precious metal imports is particularly significant as India’s gems and jewellery exports declined by 29.5% in October.

This trend suggests that the imported gold and silver are primarily serving domestic consumption rather than being utilised for export-oriented manufacturing.